Bitcoin Mirrors Gold’s 1970s Path: Morgan Stanley vs Bernstein Outlook

Bitcoin Mirrors Gold’s 1970s Path: Morgan Stanley vs Bernstein Outlook

by | Apr 18, 2023 | Crypto Blog

 

Morgan Stanley suggests Bitcoin may face tough times ahead, as it shares similarities with the movement of gold in the 1970s. According to CNBC, Morgan Stanley strategist, Sheena Shah, claims that "50 years ago, gold was also traded as a speculative asset" and that "Bitcoin has so far followed a similar path to the gold price speculation of the 1970s, moving in a four-year cycle."

Gold in the 1970s followed the consumer price index (CPI) as governments explosively issued legal tender in response to crises. Shah notes that "from 1971, as the US dollar supply increased rapidly, the price of gold quadrupled in just four years." Between August 1976 and January 1980, the gold price increased eight-fold, from $102 to $850, but the speculation had not yet reached its peak.

Shah adds that "the statistical similarity between Bitcoin and gold could be coincidental, as gold prices were managed for the first few years." Bitcoin proponents emphasize its potential as 'digital gold,' citing its divisibility, scarcity, and independence from central issuers.

 

Some once argued that Bitcoin could serve as an alternative to stocks, but this claim lost steam as the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks reached an all-time high during last year's market turmoil. As of last month, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks fell to its lowest since 2021, while that of Bitcoin and gold rose.

In contrast, Wall Street investment bank Bernstein points out that Bitcoin recorded a 2.91 times higher return than gold over three years as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates amid the COVID-19 pandemic. They predict "an unprecedented Bitcoin bull run is about to begin." The report states, "the collapse of FTX and consecutive bankruptcies of US banks are catalysts for a new crypto bull market. Positive news for the crypto market includes the completion of Ethereum's Shanghai upgrade, the success of Arbitrum, and the upcoming Bitcoin halving."

With two opposing outlooks, it remains to be seen whether Morgan Stanley's 'disappointment' or Bernstein's 'expectation' will prevail.

 

 

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Elon Musk Reveals Government Access to Twitter DMs, Sparks Controversy and Boosts Dogecoin

Elon Musk Reveals Government Access to Twitter DMs, Sparks Controversy and Boosts Dogecoin

by | Apr 17, 2023 | Crypto Blog

 

In a recent preview of an interview on Fox News' "Tucker Carlson Tonight," Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who acquired Twitter last year, made a startling revelation that the US government can read all private direct messages (DMs) on Twitter. This claim has sparked a debate on privacy and government surveillance in social media.

Musk expressed his shock, stating he was unaware of the government's virtually complete access to everything happening on Twitter, including users' private DMs. However, Forbes questions whether Musk's "access" refers to the standard procedure where agencies like the FBI obtain data from tech companies through court orders or if it implies a more sinister surveillance system.

In the same interview, Musk also emphasized the dangers of artificial intelligence (AI). He warned that left-leaning programmers could use AI to lie, which he believes is wrong. Comparing AI to faulty aircraft design and defective car production, Musk claimed that AI possesses civilization-destroying potential.

 

 

Interestingly, following Musk's revelations, the meme coin Dogecoin, which he has shown a fondness for, experienced a 5% surge in value. Although there seems to be no direct correlation between the news and the meme coin, Dogecoin's volatility has often been linked to Musk's tweets in the past.

 

 

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US CPI Report Shows Encouraging Signs, But Market Volatility Persists

US CPI Report Shows Encouraging Signs, But Market Volatility Persists

by | Apr 13, 2023 | Crypto Blog

 

On April 12th, 2023, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April was announced, showing a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year. This is lower than the anticipated 5.2%, but still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Nonetheless, it is the first time since September 2021 that the CPI has come in at 5.0%, which is quite encouraging.

 

 

A month-over-month chart shows a gradual downward trend. However, it is still premature to expect cryptocurrencies or stocks to move in a single direction. The core CPI rose 5.6% year-over-year, higher than February's CPI. Bloomberg points out that this is the first time in two years that the core CPI's growth rate has exceeded the overall CPI growth rate, indicating persistent high inflation.

 

 

Bybit Exchange Bitcoin Chart

These announcements can create a sense of unease in the market, even though they contain well-known information. Bitcoin's price fluctuated before and after the US CPI announcement, demonstrating enough volatility for high-leverage futures traders to face liquidation. During major economic announcements such as CPI or FOMC interest rate decisions, it is prudent to observe rather than trade. As prices tend to return to their original levels, placing a buy order at the initial position can provide peace of mind and a good night's sleep.

 

 

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March CPI Announcement Looms, Bitcoin Hits 30K, and Crypto Volatility Increases

March CPI Announcement Looms, Bitcoin Hits 30K, and Crypto Volatility Increases

by | Apr 11, 2023 | Crypto Blog

 

It feels like yesterday when the February CPI announcement was made in March, but a month has passed, and the announcement of the March CPI index is just a day away. The US consumer price index (CPI) announcement will be on April 12, 2023.

Perhaps because of this, Bitcoin finally touched 30K this morning! However, there was no particularly favorable news, and it seems that the increasing volatility ahead of the CPI announcement led to a concentration of long positions. In addition to the CPI announcement, the FOMC meeting minutes will also be released, so be cautious of volatility around the announcement time.

 

 

The CPI index has been gradually declining since September 2022. This time, the CPI announcement is expected to be 5.2%, and it is curious whether it will exceed or fall short of the estimate. Personally, I think it might come out slightly below at around 5.1%. Does that mean the coin will skyrocket!? That seems like a different issue.

Since March, the unnecessary steep rise of Bitcoin has increased anxiety. It would be nice if it went up slowly or there was a clear reason, but it has reached $30,000 without any apparent reason, and it worries us how far it will fall again after reaching 30,000 dollars.

 

 

The current US central bank interest rate is 5.00% after raising it by 0.25% in March 2023. It seems likely to increase by 0.25~0.5% within 2023, but it would be great if they could freeze the interest rate until the end of the year.

Looking at Bitcoin, it suddenly started to rise and eventually reached 30K as everyone expected and hoped for. We're used to fluctuations up or down the day before the CPI announcement, but it's been a long time since we've seen such a large consecutive rise, making it hard to adapt.

 

 

Fortunately, I was successful in profiting from a short position last week, and it now seems to be my turn for a long position. I opened long positions on altcoins since last Friday. The price moved sideways from the weekend to Monday, but it soared early this morning, bringing profits.

However, my GALLA coin short position for hedging was liquidated. Still, the rest of the coins' long positions rose so much that the profit rate is much higher.

Crypto news of FTX Japan preparing for a reopening has been circulating, and Solana alone recorded over 200% profit. I sold all of my Solana right away in the morning and took profit. Aptos and Phantom Coin also reached a profit rate of over 100% around 3 PM, and I immediately took profit on all of them. Since tomorrow is the CPI announcement, it would be safer to realize profits right away if you've made a profit. It would be unfair to lose it all again after being greedy!

 

 

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Thai Opposition Party Candidate Promises Cryptocurrency Airdrop to Boost Economy

Thai Opposition Party Candidate Promises Cryptocurrency Airdrop to Boost Economy

by | Apr 7, 2023 | Crypto Blog

 

Thai Opposition Party Candidate Pledges $300 Crypto Airdrop to Boost Economy

Srettha Thavisin, a candidate for Thailand's main opposition party, Pheu Thai, has promised to give every Thai citizen a bonus of 10,000 baht (approximately $300) in cryptocurrency, as reported by CoinDesk. This pledge is a part of Thavisin's proposed economic stimulus measures, which are based on the concept of universal basic income and digital currency.

Local media outlet Bangkok Post stated that Thavisin's policy aims to offer some economic relief to Thai citizens burdened with high household debt. In an interview with Bloomberg, Thavisin criticized the current government's approach, arguing that providing small amounts of money does not stimulate economic growth. Instead, he believes that his proposed policy can help improve Thailand's economic situation, which has suffered due to stagnant income levels and increasing living costs.

At the time of writing, it remains unclear which digital currency or token will be used for the airdrop, as a spokesperson for the Pheu Thai Party has not yet responded to CoinDesk's request for an interview.

On April 7, 2023, Bitcoin mining difficulty reached an all-time high of 47.89 T, marking a 2.23% increase. However, it is unlikely that Bitcoin would be used for the airdrop due to its scarcity and high value. The chosen cryptocurrency must strike a balance between being valuable enough to benefit recipients and being feasible for widespread distribution. It will be interesting to see how this proposed policy unfolds and impacts Thailand's economy.

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